Political pundits often express the importance of so-called “swing states.” During election years, this term is used often, but rarely defined.
Seven key swing states will likely determine the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
National polling conducted by the Cook Political Report revealed Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could give their electoral votes to either candidate, thereby awarding one candidate the presidency over the other. It should be noted that polling results are ever-changing and may vary slightly from day to day, casting more doubt on declaring one outcome.
Both major parties have similar levels of support in the swing states, prompting an unpredictable “swing” in voting outcome. In response, presidential campaigns have heavily targeted these states to one-up their opponent. Though it is nearly impossible to gauge which way these few influential states will lean, understanding their role is vital to understanding the nature of the presidential race.
The electoral college system decides the president by awarding 538 votes. Each state’s individual number of votes correlates to its number of members in the United States House of Representatives, which is based on size and population, as well as its representatives in the United States Senate. For example, Kentucky has eight electoral votes, corresponding to its six representatives in the House and its two Senators. The 528 total electoral college votes are created by 435 House representatives, 100 Senators and three District of Columbia representatives.
A candidate must receive 270 votes to win the election.
In total, 93 electoral votes are up for grabs in swing states. Based on the summed electoral votes of states each candidate is likely to win, Harris will need at least 44 votes and Trump will need at least 51 votes from the swing states to win, according to NBC News.
The electoral college within most states, except Nebraska and Maine, is “winner-take-all.” For example, if a candidate wins the tally in a state by 1% or more, they receive all of the state’s electoral votes. Candidates wish to win swing states because of the amount of votes up for grabs, especially in states with large amounts of electoral votes, like Pennsylvania.
Each swing state holds the power to make or break a candidate’s shot at the presidency. Even Nevada, with its six electoral votes, could be just the amount needed to push one candidate to victory in a close election.
Swing states’ influence encourages candidates to spend millions on advertising to sway voters. Since the beginning of the election cycle, over $1.6 billion has been spent on ads overall, according to NPR. As of August, Democrats out-spent Republicans $882 million to $721 million.
The majority of television and radio ad spending in this election has targeted Pennsylvanians. Spending in the state as of September was $133 million in total: $77 million for Democrats and $56 million for Republicans, according to The New York Times.
The amount of money sent to each state is primarily determined by its number of votes and voting history. Each state is a unique battleground that requires an individualized campaign strategy.
Arizona – 11 votes
Voters have consistently supported Republican candidates in Arizona in recent years. However, the 2020 election saw the state’s voters unexpectedly swing Democratic, giving their votes to President Joe Biden.
Polls from FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times showed Trump trending above Harris throughout September. Trump had a one-point or less lead, a small but consistent edge. Narrow leads are common in many of the swing states.
Georgia – 16 votes
Georgia is another state that uncharacteristically swung for Biden in 2020, considering it had not voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Trump led in the Peach State by less than one point in September, according to The New York Times polling averages. Harris matched his lead on a few occasions during the month but has since experienced a wider margin between her and the former president. However, Trump’s lead has significantly narrowed since Biden’s drop from the presidential race in July. Though Georgia has not swung prior to 2020, this election cycle may prove to be the second breakthrough in the state’s history.
Michigan – 15 votes
Michigan has long been a blue state but awarded its electoral votes to Trump in the 2016 election. Michigan is rarely a swing state, historically awarding its electoral votes to the Democratic candidates. The New York Times polling released on Sept. 28 shows the two candidates in a one-point race in the state.
Harris led the state by two points through August and September, according to select polls by Suffolk University, Emerson College and Marist College, among others compiled by The New York Times. Compared to Biden’s 2020 lead of seven points, a Democratic victory is not guaranteed.
Nevada – 6 votes
Nevada’s election outcomes have consistently lied within the margin of error throughout the past two decades. Five of the eight presidential elections in the state from 1992 to 2020 were won by less than three points. This trend continued in the 2020 election when Biden received the state’s six electoral votes thanks to a mere 2 ½ point lead.
Labor unions in the state could potentially throw Democrats out of favor in the state. Biden had their support during his campaign and administration, but the switch to Harris as the leading Democrat on the ballot could shake the partnership.
Polling averages for September by The New York Times showed Harris consistently leading by one point or less.
North Carolina – 16 votes
North Carolina, a southern strong-hold for the Republican Party, has given rare optimism to Democrats. Harris’s ad spending of $28 million in the state is seven times that of Trump’s $4 million.
Recent polling by sources selected and compiled by The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight revealed fluctuations in the leading candidate in August and September. After a 16-day lead by Harris, Trump led by one point in late September.
Through an appeal to the state’s 37% of non-partisan voters, those who do not affiliate with either party could give Harris a needed boost to win North Carolina’s 16 votes.
Pennsylvania – 19 votes
Pennsylvania holds the most votes of all the swing states in this election cycle and is also a historic swing state. The majority of television and radio ad spending in this election has targeted Pennsylvanians. Spending in the state as of September was $133 million in total: $77 million for Democrats and $56 million for Republicans, according to The New York Times.
In the past two elections, Pennsylvania was a wild card. Despite the fight, The New York Times polling averages have shown Harris beating Trump by one to two points since the middle of August.
Wisconsin – 10 votes
Wisconsin’s red swing in 2016 showed a different trend from the state’s previous Democratic support. The state gave its 10 votes to Biden in 2020, but the win was within a less than 1% margin.
Harris led by two points in August and September, according to The New York Times polling. Polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed just prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Trump led in the state’s polls. In the days after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Trump lost his lead.
As Election Day moves closer, polls continue to fluctuate and polls from swing states continue to make headline news. On election night, voting results from swing states will be some of the closest watched. Candidates’ performances in swing states have been make or break for recent electoral outcomes. The 2024 election is shaping up to be no different.
News Reporter Natalie Freidhof can be reached at [email protected].