WKU was the only public university in Kentucky to see a decrease in student enrollment in fall 2024, statewide data shows. According to the university’s 2024-2025 Common Data Set, WKU’s enrollment decreased by 2.78% last semester compared to the year before.
Kentucky’s seven other public universities each saw an enrollment increase by varying amounts. In raw numbers, the University of Kentucky saw the largest increase, growing by 2,007 students, while Morehead State University had the smallest increase, growing by 172 students.
These enrollment numbers, which are reported to the Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education (CPE), include the number of international students and non-degree-seeking students, such as high school dual credit or programs like WKU’s Gatton Academy for Mathematics and Science or Morehead State University’s Craft Academy for Excellence in Science and Mathematics.
CPE data shows fewer individuals are choosing to attend college in the commonwealth than 12 years ago. State leaders recognize that there has been a drop in enrollment in recent years, yet they push back on the idea that enrollment has consistently declined.
WKU officials have continued to push back, as well, emphasizing the university’s strategy to focus not on increasing headcount enrollment – the total number of students taking classes offered by the university – but instead on increasing net tuition revenue.
WKU’s enrollment decline
Since its peak during the 2012-2013 academic year, WKU’s enrollment has steadily declined with only two recorded increases.
At the peak, WKU enrolled 21,110 students. In the fall of 2024, the university enrolled 16,291. Since then, enrollment decreased by 22.83%, which includes a 19.58% decrease since the 2017-2018 academic year.
Part of the decline in enrollment can be attributed to the university’s pivoting away from recruiting international students, a decrease in the offering of dual credit opportunities at WKU and the closing of a WKU-run community college, which operated until it was reorganized in 2018.
These changes were made as the administration shifted from focusing on headcount enrollment to increasing net tuition revenue.
John-Mark Francis, WKU interim vice president for enrollment management, said a focus on increasing headcount enrollment is not sustainable for universities.
“Chasing raw headcount often leads institutions down paths that are not strategic and unsustainable,” Francis said. “The path we elected to take is to be more deliberate and focus on long-term goals to optimize an enrollment that is predictable and sustainable over the long run while still keeping that eye on quality.”
Francis also noted that, when high school dual credit students are removed from consideration, WKU’s headcount “is essentially flat with less than 1% variance from the previous year.”
WKU’s enrollment decline can also be attributed to a decline in the state and national college-going rates, or the rate of graduating high school seniors who choose some kind of postsecondary education.
“One of the more troubling shifts that we see across the Commonwealth of Kentucky is the decline in the college-going rate among high school graduates,” Francis said. “Fewer students are entering into postsecondary education when they graduate high school. And so, what we as an institution have to do is spend more time talking to students, prospective students, and their families about the long-term benefits of a college education.”
According to data provided by Francis from the National Student Clearinghouse, WKU’s largest competitors are larger flagship schools in Kentucky and Tennessee – when students are choosing to attend college at all.
“In terms of institutions, our top three competitor institutions are the University of Kentucky, University of Louisville and the University of Tennessee – Knoxville,” Francis said. “But in terms of the largest share of students, the majority of them actually don’t go anywhere.”
The National Student Clearinghouse is a nonprofit organization that collects higher education data through facilitating the exchange of transcripts and information, according to its website.
According to Francis, through its partnership with the organization, WKU is able to compare its annual enrollment and gather information as to whether or not admitted students chose to attend college, and if so, where they enrolled.
It is the fact that over 60% of those who apply to WKU do not go to college anywhere that Francis and the administration place their focus.
“It’s easy for us as an institution of higher education to think that we’re competing with other four-year universities in Kentucky and beyond when yes, we are, but in fact we’re also competing with going straight into the job market,” Francis said.
Francis also downplayed the idea that WKU is competing with other regional schools in the commonwealth.
“It’s easy to assume that, as an institution, that WKU is competing against other regional comprehensive universities in Kentucky, and if you look at this list, the institutions with which we’re competing are generally Research I institutions both inside and outside of Kentucky,” Francis said.
“When you look at all the four-year universities in Kentucky, you have the Research I universities, and then the current structure places all of the regional comprehensive universities together in the same bucket,” Francis continued. “And if you look at the data behind it, WKU is a much different institution than the other regional comprehensive universities.”
WKU President Timothy Caboni has also attributed the decline in enrollment to additional factors.
In August 2023, Caboni explained a coming “enrollment cliff,” which is a declining number of college-age students due to lower birth rates during the 2008 recession, would not only impact enrollment on the Hill but at universities nationwide.
“When you think about the number of students going to post secondary education going from 57 to 47%, declining age cohort, that means we have to redouble our efforts to recruit, to talk about the quality of experience we have here,” Caboni said. “We need to continue focusing on affordability and being a welcoming place for every student, because in addition to a demographic cliff, the demographic makeup of that group also is shifting.”
In a January 2024 meeting with the Herald Editorial Board, Caboni additionally expressed concern about the decrease in the Kentucky college-going rate.
“My concern is we have to get them some kind of education after high school for them to be able to have good job prospects, and as a state we have to have that conversation,” Caboni said at the time. “It is partially me and us in recruiting, but it has to be our state leadership, understanding that human capital is our most important capital, and for us to be able to continue economic growth, we need an educated workforce.”
In his January 2025 meeting with the Herald, Caboni also attributed the decline in enrollment in part to the national birthrate decline following the 9/11 attacks and a previous emphasis on recruiting international students. Generally, however, Caboni noted that a continued increase in enrolled students is not what the university is pursuing. Instead, keeping enrollment stable while increasing degree-seeking students is the administration’s focus.
“Flat, in terms of enrollment, is the new up,” Caboni said.
The Herald reached out to University Spokesperson Jace Lux Tuesday to request an interview with Caboni on the subject. Lux told the Herald that Caboni was unavailable, and Lux directed questions to Francis, who gave an interview with the Herald on Jan. 31.
Fewer Kentuckians are choosing college across the state, not just WKU.
The large number of applicants to WKU who choose to not attend college aligns with roughly a decade of decreasing college enrollment across Kentucky.
According to officials from the Council on Postsecondary Education, the decline in the college-going rate has led to a decrease in university enrollment across Kentucky.
At six of Kentucky’s eight public universities, enrollment was lower in the fall of 2024 than in the fall of 2012.
According to data from the CPE website, enrollment in Kentucky’s public universities steadily declined from 2016-2017 to 2021-2022 before beginning to increase again. The data shows enrollment relatively returned to 2014-2015 levels in fall 2024.
In fall 2024, undergraduate enrollment at six public universities in the commonwealth was lower than in 2012-2013, according to data obtained through an information request to the CPE. Only two schools – the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville – saw increased enrollment.
The online data also shows a 3.18% decrease in the enrollment of degree-seeking students since 2014-2015. The number of degree-seeking students in Kentucky has increased only three times since 2014-2015.
According to CPE officials, recent decreases are not entirely unexpected and are part of a larger, national issue.
CPE Senior Vice President and Chief of Staff Lee Nimocks explained that university enrollment in the commonwealth increased immediately after the 2008 recession, and the general decline in enrollment across the state seen in recent years is simply the numbers leveling out and continuing to grow.
“I think an important takeaway is that, particularly over the last five years, sort of post-pandemic, we are seeing a steady rebound in college enrollment,” Nimocks said. “And that’s not only first time enrollment … but it’s also a testament to the strong work that the campuses are doing in terms of retaining students and providing wrap-around services to ensure they (students) are actually progressing through towards completion.”
Travis Muncie, the council’s chief information officer, added that while college-going rates declined around 10% from 2012 to 2022, there have been recent improvements.
“The good news is over the last year was the first time that we actually saw that college going rate tick up a little bit, almost two percentage points,” Muncie said. “So, hopefully we’re starting a new trend as a lot of policies and efforts from the institutions and the state go into place to increase that college going rate.”
Nimocks and Muncie agree that enrollment declined in the past decade but disagreed with the characterization that it is part of a trend in decreasing college enrollment in Kentucky.
“I do want to push back on the declining enrollment,” Nimocks said. “What we are seeing over the past five years is generally across the board an uptick in enrollment. (…) I don’t want to leave the impression that we are on a slow and steady decline because, in fact, we’re very optimistic about enrollment in the future.”
“Especially over the last two or three years we’ve seen great progress in a lot of our populations in the state as far as enrollment goes, as dual credit goes, and we’re seeing a lot of good indicators as far as our early indicators go,” Muncie added.
This can be seen at other institutions across the commonwealth. Eastern Kentucky University, Murray State University, the University of Louisville and the University of Kentucky have each announced record enrollment numbers since the beginning of the fall 2024 semester.
Nimocks said the CPE remains optimistic about the future of postsecondary enrollment in the commonwealth.
“We’re very optimistic about enrollment in the future,” Nimocks said. “We’re seeing a lot of movement and positive directions around adult learners around college going rates, around enrollment, around dual credit.”
“We’re not seeing that rebound that we’d like to see in terms of enrollment, but we are working collectively with campuses on a lot of strategies to try and address those issues,” Nimocks added.
Where does WKU go from here?
Caboni has said multiple times that WKU’s strategy is not to increase headcount enrollment Instead, the administration’s focus has been on increasing net tuition revenue.
According to Francis, the shift toward a focus on net tuition revenue allows the university to focus on awarding financial aid to “hardworking families” and students who are best equipped to succeed.
Data provided by WKU Assistant Vice President for Budget Finance and Analytics Renaldo Domoney shows WKU’s annual net-tuition revenue has decreased by 15.06% since 2012-2013. After rising from 2012-2013 to 2016-2017, net tuition revenue steadily decreased through 2022-2023. Last year saw an increase by 1.41%, bringing in over $124 million.
Data provided by Domoney also indicated an increase in the amount of money awarded through institutional scholarships. In 2012-2013, the university provided over $13.3 million in institutional scholarships. This is compared to nearly $46 million provided in 2023-2024.
According to materials prepared for the Feb. 14 Board of Regents meeting, “Total Revenue has increased due to the significant increase in net tuition revenue. The total Gross Tuition and Fees were up slightly, but the reduction in Institutional Financial Assistance, resulting from a revised scholarship model, attributed to a 6% increase in Net Tuition Revenue.”
CPE officials said they were unfamiliar with WKU’s strategy to focus on net tuition revenue, but emphasized that Kentucky’s public universities are independent from the council and from one another.
“The institutions that we coordinate are autonomous institutions,” Nimocks said.
Francis attributes the university’s recruitment strategies to the increase in net tuition revenue. The university’s recruitment strategy has become focused on attracting students who have higher chances of graduating from WKU through shifting the distribution of scholarship awards.
“We want to make sure that our dollars are going toward students who have worked really hard, who will no doubt be successful in college, but may not be getting any recognition from other institutions,” Francis said. “So we want to help them help their hardworking families lower the cost of their college experience a little bit and ultimately get them enrolled in as part of the Hilltopper family.”
Francis said this strategy means focusing “more of our institution scholarship dollars on smaller awards to more students,” including out-of-state students. He also said that, for the first time, “about a third” of WKU’s freshman enrollment came from outside Kentucky.
The university’s strategy has also included a focus on retaining students.
In this metric, WKU has seen improvement. Since 2012-2013, the university’s retention rate has increased seven percentage points. The university has also seen an increase of 8.4 percentage points since 2017-2018.
Data provided by the CPE shows that WKU’s fall 2024 retention rate of 78.3% was the third highest of the commonwealth’s public universities. WKU fell behind only the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville.
The university is focused on increasing student retention because, according to Francis, it is necessary and important not only for the university but for its students.
“WKU will absolutely remain focused on our work to retain students,” Francis said. “It’s good for our institution, it’s good for enrollment health, but more importantly, it’s the right thing to do for our students.”
Francis said WKU administration is optimistic about enrollment at WKU and the institution’s future.
“I encourage anyone to spend time talking to the students here and to our recent graduates to see how, as we continue relentless incrementalism of changing and improving a little at a time, how that actually plays out in the lives of our students,” Francis said. “When I look at the students here on our campus and I look at the students that are choosing WKU, I’m absolutely optimistic about our future.”
Editor-in-Chief Price Wilborn can be reached at edwin.wilborn835@topper.wku.edu. Follow him on X @pricewilborn.
