When WKU Head Coach Steve Lutz announced the signing of JUCO transfer Don McHenry, he labeled him a winner, a scorer, and a competitor. Just over 20 games later, we can see that Coach Lutz had the crystal ball.
In just his third game with the Hilltoppers, McHenry’s then career-high 22 points led WKU to a five-point win at Murray State. Since then, the Milwaukee native hasn’t slowed down.
Over the course of the season, the guard is averaging 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, on 46% shooting from the field. And while a Dec. 18th C-USA Player of the Week title looks shiny on a resume to be Conference Player of the Year, history claims that McHenry may be left out of the conversation.
Over the last 10 years, eight of the winners of the C-USA POTY title ended their season with a Win Share per 40 Minutes (WS/40) margin of over .19. Right now, McHenry’s WS/40 sits at .165. However, that is not necessarily the cut-off point. In the 2014-2015 season, Speedy Smith out of Louisiana Tech claimed the award with a .129 WS/40.
A more convincing metric is the Box Plus/Minus (BP/M). In the same 10-year span, the winners of the award have averaged a BP/M of 6.1, with only three of the winners having a BPM of less than five. There has never been a player to win the award with a BP/M of less than 2.4 since the creation of the statistic.
This season, McHenry sits at a 2.2.
For a breakdown, Box Plus Minus is purely a rate stat, meaning that it does not take into account playing time. The number represents a player’s contribution in points above average per 100 possessions played.
There may still be hope though. It seems obvious that in order to win the award you have to be involved. For the Hilltoppers, McHenry is incredibly involved. Since the 2013-2014 season, half of the winners of the award have a Usage Percentage (USG%) less than or equal to McHenry’s 26.5%.
While McHenry has been lights out from the floor, sporting a near 50-40-90 shooting split, his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) seems like another outlier against winners of the past. The average PER for C-USA POTY winners sits at 24.5, with all but two of the players having a PER over 20. McHenry sits at 19.1.
For reference, McHenry’s 19.1 is not shabby at all. As of now, it sits at 14th in the conference. Yet, when matched up against some of the greatest players to ever play in C-USA, McHenry’s numbers seem to only be ‘best of the rest’.
Finally, we have to look at a player’s True Shooting Percentage (TS%). In Feb. of 2021, John Cregan of ESPN gave a breakdown of True Shooting Percentage. In the article, Creagan defined the stat this way,
“TS% asses how well your player performs anytime one of his possessions ends in a shot attempt (including free throws).”
On average, a 50% TS% is the run-of-the-mill athlete who is currently playing in the NCAA. As you guessed, the winners of this award are above average. The average TS% of a C-USA POTY winner sits at 57%, while McHenry’s sits at 56.1%.
However, all hope is not abandoned. In fact, there has been a similar case before.
Speedy Smith, the Louisiana Tech Guard from 2011-2015, was never above average in any of these stats. As a matter of fact, in the season that Smith claimed the title, he averaged 6.4 points, 7.4 assists, and four rebounds per game. Not only that, but he also put up those statistics shooting 39% from the field, and 35% from three.
However, what Smith brought to the court isn’t represented by scoring statistics. He sits 44th all-time in C-USA career steals, tied for seventh all-time for C-USA single season steals, 10th all-time in C-USA assists, and sits number one and two with his 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 single-season assist records.
Not to mention that Smith was a two-time All C-USA team recipient (In his two C-USA years), as well as the 2013-2014 C-USA DPOY.
Yet, there is a bigger issue standing in the way of Don McHenry than just his own statistics: the statistics of conference foe, Isaiah Crawford.
Louisiana Tech forward, Isaiah Crawford, has been absolutely lighting up the stat sheet this season. The fifth year senior is averaging 15.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, all the while shooting 51.2% from the field.
It also seems like Crawford is checking all the specific boxes as well.
This season, Crawford has led the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to an impressive 16-6 record through their first 22 games, and a 6-1 inner-conference record, putting them at the top of the standings.
Under a microscope, his numbers are even more impressive.
Crawford has been a major factor in the Bulldogs 2023-2024 season’s success, as is reflected by his 2.3 WS/40, ranking him first in the conference. Crawford also sits in first place in C-USA for his BPM statistics.
The LA Tech forward is sporting a 9.2 BPM, which sits at the top of the conference leaders for players who have played over 100 minutes.
The impressive numbers don’t stop there. Crawford also ranks third in the conference of those who have played over 100 minutes in his PER.
The only other player to be top three in WS/40, BPM, and PER? LA Tech teammate, Daniel Batcho.
All in all, it isn’t impossible. The JUCO transfer has been lights out for the Hilltoppers. However, it doesn’t look likely that the Milwaukee kid will be bringing home the trophy. At least not this year.
